Evaluating new investment products

“People calculate too much and think too little.”

This is a quote from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s right hand man, and a world-class investor in his own right.

It is one of my favorite quotes and has rung true throughout my investment career. In my experience, many financial professionals accept numbers too easily without fully understanding assumptions, sensitivity to inputs, and general rules of economics and competition.

We are always looking for ways to better design client investment portfolios. Every year, we are bombarded with new investment approaches, new products and new trading strategies to beat the market. Most new products can be tossed aside immediately, but a few require more detailed investigation. (more…)

We’ll say it again: The choice of assets can make a big difference.

There was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal from March 8, 2011 called “Why Small-Cap Funds are Lagging.” It cites a study by Credit Suisse showing that “small-cap funds have increasingly been investing in companies larger than their category name would indicate—and the average fund is underperforming its benchmark.”

The article goes on to say “The average market capitalization of a company in a small-cap fund was about $3.1 billion at the end of 2010, compared to the average market cap of the benchmark Russell 2000 index of about $1.3 billion. The $1.8 billion gap between the two is the largest since September 2008.” (more…)

Are dividend-paying stocks good bond substitutes?

A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.

With bond yields so low, is it a good idea to substitute dividend-paying stocks for bonds? Some would say yes, since dividend-paying stocks yield more than some bonds, and have more upside potential.

However, I don’t think this is a good strategy.

Obviously, dividends are an important component of stocks’ total return. From 1930 through October 2010, for example, dividends provided 45% of the annualized percentage gain of the S&P 500. Dividends also help sustain portfolio income when interest rates are low.

But there’s no getting around the fact that stocks, including dividend-paying stocks, are generally more volatile than bonds. Substituting dividend-paying stocks for bonds will lead to a higher risk portfolio.

Let’s take an example of how volatile dividend-paying stocks could be. We’ll look at three exchange traded funds (ETFs). The first is SPY, which tracks the S&P 500. (more…)

Inflation and our Merriman bond portfolio

Here’s an article we recently mailed to Merriman clients, addressing some inflation questions that we felt our FundAdvice readers may also be interested in:

Some investors are concerned about the prospect of future inflation, based on fiscal and monetary measures the U.S. government has taken to respond to the recent market crisis. However, other metrics suggest that moderate inflation will continue. These include current inflation, bond market indicators and worldwide excess capacity.

Merriman’s recommended bond portfolio is structured to provide a reasonable level of protection against inflation.

The Fed’s view

The Federal Reserve, in a statement on April 28th said, “With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.”

Notwithstanding this reassuring if somewhat abstruse statement, there is considerable debate about whether higher inflation will result from the fiscal and monetary actions the federal government used to curtail the market plunge from October 2007 to March 2009. Inflation is the nemesis of bond investors. An increase in inflation will cause an increase in interest rates and decrease the value of bonds. Conversely, if interest rates were to fall because of lower inflation, bond prices would rise.

What factors impact inflation and how is our bond portfolio structured to handle inflation risk? (more…)

Roth IRAs: To convert or not to convert

As a financial advisor and CPA, I often receive tax questions from my clients.  One that has been coming up a lot in the past year is: “Should I convert my non-Roth retirement plan (401(k), traditional IRA, 403(b) or 457(b)) to a Roth IRA?”  The question isn’t surprising, given the new rules that took effect January 1 for Roth IRA conversions.

The short answer, which should not surprise you, is: “It depends.”

The issue is complex, and the answer for one person can be radically different from the answer for someone else. Converting might be a boon, a mixed bag or a mistake, all depending on your circumstances.

It’s worse than that, because the only way to make sure you’re making the right choice is to know some variables of the future which simply cannot be known.

My bottom-line advice is to seek professional advice from your tax advisor, your financial advisor or your tax attorney before you take the plunge.

A word of caution

The difficulty with Roth conversions, like the difficulty for many tax strategies, is that the right answers cannot be known in advance. You usually cannot know your future income for sure. You cannot know what Congress will do to the tax code. And you cannot know future tax rates. In each case, the best you can do is guess. (more…)