Quarter in Review: Q1 2023 Market Update

Quarter in Review: Q1 2023 Market Update

by | Apr 18, 2023 | Advisors, Kristi de Grys, News, Research, Tech Focus

 

Optimism and fear drove markets in equal measure this past quarter. The year started off with a strong rally as the prevailing sentiment was that inflation was easing and if a recession did occur it would be mild. The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) ended the month of January up 7.17%. Doubts came creeping in late February and global stocks fell 2.9%. Then all-out fear drove markets sharply down in early March as the possibility of a full-blown banking crisis was raised with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the regulatory takeover of Signature Bank. Quick action in the U.S. and abroad to stabilize the banking system allayed fears over the coming weeks and most segments of the market rallied to end the quarter in positive territory for the year.

While we can wish that the strong market ups and downs driven by the back and forth between optimism and fear would abate, that seems unlikely in the near term. Inflationary pressures appear to be easing but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how things will play out in the short term. There is also the looming debate over the U.S. debt ceiling. No politician is motivated to have their political career wrecked by the economic fallout of a true default but there seems to be no doubt that there will be much political wrangling leading up to the final outcome. The lack of a clear path to resolution seems likely to drive volatility in the market. As we saw with the post-bank scare rally in late March, even in times of fear and uncertainty, markets can deliver positive returns.

We have seen continued strength in some sectors and major shifts in other areas. Even before the March banking scare, U.S. mega-cap growth stocks had been rebounding in ways not seen since late 2020. Ninety percent of the S&P 500’s gain in the first quarter came from the top 10 stocks and 50% from the top five. Whether this trend will continue or is simply driven by investors seeking perceived safety remains to be seen. While valuations of U.S. large-cap and U.S. growth stocks have fallen from their 2021 highs, by most measures, they remain above historical averages and above the valuations of small-cap and value stocks. While valuations can have some predictive power over long time frames, markets continue to remind us that in the short term anything can happen.

 

 

 

Disclosure: All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional.

The SVB Bank Collapse and What It Means For You

The SVB Bank Collapse and What It Means For You

by | Mar 15, 2023 | Emergency Savings, Kristi de Grys, Merriman's Take, News, Tech Focus, Wealth Protection

 

The SVB Bank Collapse and What It Means For You

 

On Friday March 10, the world woke up to headlines that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had “failed.” Bank failures, though rare, are nothing new and the story roughly plays out the same each time. Runs start with higher-than-anticipated demands for cash that turn into a contagion as depositors become fearful they won’t be able to get their money out and withdraw it, even though they don’t need it right then. The speed at which the SVB collapse happened showed us what a run looks like in an age when information travels almost instantaneously and money can be requested from anywhere via a simple request from a phone.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was established expressly to prevent the fear that drives bank runs. If depositors are guaranteed they will get their money back, there is no need for panic and small dislocations don’t turn into full-blown explosions with wide-reaching collateral damage. The challenge for SVB and Signature Bank, which was also shut down by government regulators over the weekend, was that the vast majority (up to 97%) of depositors had exceeded limits for FDIC coverage.

SVB was also particularly susceptible due to its concentrated depositor base of startups and small technology companies. In the pandemic, many of them became flush with cash and parked it at SVB. SVB, seeking yield and safety, invested it in longer-dated Treasury bond and other government backed securities. As higher interest rates hit the tech sector and startups particularly hard, companies began withdrawing cash at a faster rate. At the same time, the value of SVB’s longer-dated bonds fell. This pattern had been going on for multiple months until last week when SVB announced the sale of securities at a loss to cover withdrawals. That announcement triggered broad concern and the fear that SVB would not be able to cover the full amount of their deposits. Whether that would have ultimately been true or not remains unclear.

To avoid further panic and contagion risk across the banking system, the FDIC stepped in and took over the bank on Friday, following up with a guarantee to cover all deposits at SVB and Signature Bank, even those above the standard insurance limit. Given the commitment to cover deposits for these two banks, it seems likely they would do so for others. They also extended very attractive loan arrangements that can be used by any bank. Many believe these actions should be more than enough to provide stability.

While the government has stepped in to cover depositors, this intervention is far different than what happened in 2008 when the government also bailed out bond and equity shareholders. With the government takeover, the equity of SVB is worthless as is that of Signature Bank. Thankfully, the ETFs we recommend in our core portfolio had immaterial exposure to these stocks (< 0.1%).  

However, our core portfolio overweighs U.S. small-cap value ETFs that have exposure to many other regional bank stocks which have been hit hard by association. Fear-driven market pullbacks are never fully logical, so one never knows what will happen in the next few days and weeks, but there are good reasons to believe that SVB and Signature Bank were outliers in many respects and that other small and medium-sized banks are in a stronger position.

It is very common in fear-driven market declines for small-cap stocks to suffer greater losses and then rise more quickly during a recovery than the broader market. The COVID crash in March of 2020 was the most recent example of this phenomenon. We believe one reason small-cap value stocks have historically delivered returns higher than the broad market is their greater volatility in times of stress. To be in a position to capture the potentially higher returns and diversification benefit of investing in these stocks, we must stay the course.

Anytime there is stress in the financial markets, it is an opportunity to assess whether we are taking undue risk. Investing is never risk free, but our goal is always to maximize our return for a given amount of risk. There are already some good reminders coming out of the current situation:

  1. Make sure the cash you hold at any given bank is below the FDIC insurance limit. There are plenty of good options to help you do this even for cash balances in the millions. If you, someone you know, or the business you work for is in this situation, please reach out to us and we can help direct you to solid options based on the specific needs.

     

  2. Reassess any concentrations you may have in your wealth. One of the major reasons SVB was susceptible to a bank run was the concentration of its depositor base and the high exposure in its investments to a single risk – rising interest rates. The likelihood of any given company going bankrupt is small, but the consequences can be catastrophic if a significant portion of your wealth and livelihood are tied to a single entity. The power of diversification across all aspects of your current and future wealth should not be underestimated as an effective means of protection.

Financial market stress and the associated volatility can be unnerving. We strive to provide peace of mind by designing our portfolios to keep clients on track to reach their goals through a variety of market conditions.

 

 

 

 

Disclosure: All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such.

Quarter in Review: Q4 2022 Market Update

Quarter in Review: Q4 2022 Market Update

by | Jan 12, 2023 | Kristi de Grys, Merriman's Take

 

History only gets written after the fact, but at this moment, it feels like the bear market of 2022 will be one that is remembered and studied for many years to come. The abysmal performance of bonds was most noteworthy with the primary U.S. bond benchmark index posting its worst decline since inception, falling 13% for the year. To pile on, global stocks were down 18%, marking the first time in 50 years that both bonds and stocks have fallen in a calendar year.

Only time will also tell us whether 2022 will mark the beginning of a decadal change from an era of falling rates and rock bottom interest rates when growth stocks and long-term bonds seemed to go in only one direction. But in the short term, investors who seemingly ignored the ever-growing interest rate risk for fear of missing out were dealt a serious blow with long-term government bonds down 31% and U.S. growth stocks falling 29%. With minimal exposure to these assets, many of our portfolios were able to deliver better returns than their benchmarks.

There is much uncertainty going into the year ahead, and that likely means continued volatility. 2022 reminded us that volatility can take many forms, not just wild swings day to day, but months of up followed by months of down. But we do know that with each passing month of down markets, investor expectations become more pessimistic, and it becomes easier to exceed expectations and for a rebound to be sustained over the long term. Our goal is to be positioned to capture that growth when it happens.

Disclosure: All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional.

Market Response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Market Response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine

by | Mar 15, 2022 | Advisors, Kristi de Grys, News, Research

 

Russia’s threats and invasion of Ukraine have upset global markets and driven them lower to start the year. Losses and volatility are typical when the future course of events is highly uncertain. However, as shown in the graphic below, what happens in the short term usually has little bearing on future market returns.1

 

 

Intra-year market declines are much more common than one might realize. Every year since 1979, the U.S. market (represented by the Russell 3000 Index) has experienced an intra-year decline of at least 2.7%. In 1987, the market experienced an intra-year decline of 33.1% but still finished the year with a positive return.2

We are biologically hard-wired to respond to uncertainty with action. When we were hunter-gatherers, uncertainty looked like a lion waiting in ambush and action was a beneficial response. When it comes to markets, the opposite is usually true. Time after time, we have seen that sticking with a carefully designed, diversified allocation through ups and downs yields a better outcome compared to selling out and trying to guess when to buy back in.

As we saw in March 2020, early in the pandemic, what feels like the worst of times can, in hindsight, be a market bottom followed by a strong rally. It is also very possible we will see further declines from here. There are many players whose decisions will influence the trajectory of events as well as new paradigms at play, like economic sanctions of unprecedented size and speed of application, and cyberoperations assisted by commercial companies. Given the complexity of the conflict, it is impossible for anyone to predict the outcome or its effects on the global economy.

What we do know is that diversified portfolios are designed to weather uncertainty, and that human ingenuity, perseverance, and adaptability have enabled businesses and their investors to prevail even through difficult times, especially when they are on the side of democracy and freedom. The Ukrainian businesses switching from making farm combines to tank-stopping hedgehogs and metal road spikes, and turning malls into logistics warehouses are great examples.

While our portfolios are diversified, the emerging market funds we recommend have less than 1% of their assets currently in Russian companies and as of March 4, our largest emerging market fund provider, Dimensional, has announced they will be divesting from all Russian assets. We anticipate the others will follow shortly. The markets are signaling that the biggest fear right now is inflation, especially if Western nations choose to cut off the flow of Russian energy. Historically, value stocks have done better in inflationary periods than other areas of the market and we are seeing this with our value positions outperforming the growth segments of the market. With their heavier exposure to natural resource companies, we anticipate this trend could continue if commodity prices and inflation continue to rise.

Hopefully you can find peace of mind knowing that your Merriman portfolio will weather the current storm. If you want to act, you can feel confident in your ability to donate in support of humanitarian aid or the valiant fight of the Ukrainian people, or take action to help reduce dependence on Russian energy.

 

 

 

 

Sources:

1 Vanguard

2  Dimensional Fund Advisors.

 

Disclosure: The material is presented solely for information purposes and has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable; however, Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Merriman does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice, and noting contained in these materials should be relied upon as such. Past Performance is no indication of future results.  The Russell 3000 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted equity index maintained by FTSE Russell that provides exposure to the entire U.S. stock market. The index tracks the performance of the 3,000 largest U.S.-traded stocks, which represent about 97% of all U.S.-incorporated equity securities. Any reference to an index is included for illustrative purposes only, as an index is not a security in which an investment can be made. Indices are unmanaged vehicles that serve as market indicators and do not account for the deduction of management fees and/or transaction costs generally associated with investable products.

With the World Working from Home, How Can Real Estate Be a Good Investment?

With the World Working from Home, How Can Real Estate Be a Good Investment?

by | Sep 1, 2020 | Investing 101, Kristi de Grys, Merriman's Take, Real Estate, Tech Focus, Wealth Enhancement

 

One of the most noted and real impacts of the coronavirus is that employees are working from home. While it has been a huge shift, four plus months in, the results have been positive for many, and headlines in business publications are examining whether a substantial fraction of these employees may never return to the office. There is solid debate about how big the impact will ultimately be, but there is no doubt that companies will be revisiting their spaces.

This trend might lead one to worry that real estate values will plummet as demand falls and supply stays constant. To this I would offer two counter points. First and foremost, commercial real estate encompasses a wide range of investments. The pie chart below shows the sub-sector breakdown of the holdings of our most widely recommended real estate investment, the Dimensional Global Real Estate Fund (DFGEX).

REITs that focus on office properties as of June 30th, 2020, made up just 12% of the fund’s allocation. Office REITs do not just own high-rise commercial office buildings in downtown cores. Much of the space they own is in suburban office parks and includes space leased by dentists, hairstylists, lawyers, and small research and engineering firms. While many more things can be done virtually, there are still many businesses, such as orthodontists and spas, that will always require an in-person experience.

While demand for some types of office space may be dropping, demand for other types of real estate in the fund is growing. As of June 30th, the top three holdings in the Dimensional fund were American Tower Corporation, Crown Castle International Corporation, and Prologis Inc. American Tower and Crown Castle are owners and providers of infrastructure for wireless communication and fall into the Specialized category. Prologis is in the logistics real estate business, leasing distribution facilities to support direct fulfillment to customers. All three of the companies are poised to see substantial growth from increasing demand. The fund owns many other businesses, from cold storage warehouses to multi-family apartments to medical facilities, where demand remains high.

The second point is that changes always follow any societal upheaval. There is no doubt that COVID will have an impact on our world. However, it is unclear that the shifts will be as radical as some are predicting or that COVID alone will cause the demise of industries or institutions. Large scale change rarely happens that quickly or dramatically.

For example, the idea that demand for office real estate will suddenly drop 60–70% seems overblown. IBM was an early proponent of telecommuting. In a 2009 report, they boasted that “40 percent of IBM’s some 386,000 employees in 173 countries have no office at all.” According to an Atlantic article from 2017, they unloaded 58 million square feet of office space at a gain of nearly $2 billion. By all accounts, it sounded like a winning strategy. Only, it did not work out, and in March of 2017, IBM decided to move thousands of its workers back to physical company offices.

The problem was likely a drop in what the Atlantic terms “collaborative efficiency”—or the speed at which a group successfully solves a problem. Physical distance still mattered when it came to team creativity, and remaining competitive in a rapidly changing landscape more and more requires novel solutions to complex problems. Offices may look different, but I believe that more than ever people and employees will need places to gather and connect.

The future trajectory is never clear even to the greatest minds. What is clear is that people will always need spaces to live, work, and conduct business. What those spaces look like will evolve, but companies are motivated to adapt. And historically, they have changed industrial warehouses and former malls into Amazon fulfillment centers and multi-family apartment complexes. Despite the recent drawdowns and changing landscape, we believe that investing in a diversified real estate portfolio continues to offer the potential for equity-like returns, current income, and solid inflation protection, all important elements of a well-balanced portfolio.