Here’s a little blast from the past. Remember the “DOW 36,000” guy? I guess sooner or later, they all come to their senses and realize that a well-balanced and thoroughly diversified portfolio with periodic rebalancing makes the most sense.
This article from T. Rowe Price provides some examples of prudent and not so prudent strategies for recovering from a severe market downturn in retirement. The study cited in this article once again illustrates how making wholesale portfolio changes during such a time can be the very worst idea, while keeping the focus on reducing portfolio withdrawal rates is optimal.
The only thing I would add is this: Because not everybody can significantly reduce their living expenses during a market downturn, although most can do so more than they think, this is yet another reason why it is so important not to enter retirement undersaved or without a comfortable level of emergency cash reserves. To do otherwise is a big gamble.
I am a buy and hold investor, but two recent lectures by Niall Ferguson, a Harvard Economic-Historian, make a strong case for the impending economic collapse of the United States. He predicts default and/or rampant inflation and suggests re-allocating one’s portfolio to a mixture of gold and foreign investments. I can already hear you saying “no, this time won’t be different, America will recover”, but I suppose I just wanted to hear it straight from the source. Any words of wisdom would be most appreciated.
At any given time, it is not difficult to find somebody professing to know the short term future of the economy or the capital markets. Quite often these people are highly regarded professionals armed with plenty of data to support their claims. And quite often they are wrong. History is replete with examples of how investors made wholesale changes in their portfolios based on excessively optimistic or pessimistic predictions, only to regret it deeply after the opposite occurred.
We believe that the future is fundamentally unknowable, and thus cannot be predicted with any precision. We believe investors could use their time and energy and brainpower much more effectively by controlling what they can control instead of trying to predict what cannot be predicted. We do this for our clients and with our clients by maintaining portfolios that are designed to address a wide range of economic and market climates, including inflation.
Not only is this a powerful article about life, but it just happens to come with some top-notch investment advice. While “The Investment Answer” differs slightly around the edges from Merriman’s investment approach, it is very much in line with our philosophy, and I would recommend it highly to anybody in search of a prudent way to invest.