The SVB Bank Collapse and What It Means For You

The SVB Bank Collapse and What It Means For You

 

The SVB Bank Collapse and What It Means For You

 

On Friday March 10, the world woke up to headlines that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had “failed.” Bank failures, though rare, are nothing new and the story roughly plays out the same each time. Runs start with higher-than-anticipated demands for cash that turn into a contagion as depositors become fearful they won’t be able to get their money out and withdraw it, even though they don’t need it right then. The speed at which the SVB collapse happened showed us what a run looks like in an age when information travels almost instantaneously and money can be requested from anywhere via a simple request from a phone.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was established expressly to prevent the fear that drives bank runs. If depositors are guaranteed they will get their money back, there is no need for panic and small dislocations don’t turn into full-blown explosions with wide-reaching collateral damage. The challenge for SVB and Signature Bank, which was also shut down by government regulators over the weekend, was that the vast majority (up to 97%) of depositors had exceeded limits for FDIC coverage.

SVB was also particularly susceptible due to its concentrated depositor base of startups and small technology companies. In the pandemic, many of them became flush with cash and parked it at SVB. SVB, seeking yield and safety, invested it in longer-dated Treasury bond and other government backed securities. As higher interest rates hit the tech sector and startups particularly hard, companies began withdrawing cash at a faster rate. At the same time, the value of SVB’s longer-dated bonds fell. This pattern had been going on for multiple months until last week when SVB announced the sale of securities at a loss to cover withdrawals. That announcement triggered broad concern and the fear that SVB would not be able to cover the full amount of their deposits. Whether that would have ultimately been true or not remains unclear.

To avoid further panic and contagion risk across the banking system, the FDIC stepped in and took over the bank on Friday, following up with a guarantee to cover all deposits at SVB and Signature Bank, even those above the standard insurance limit. Given the commitment to cover deposits for these two banks, it seems likely they would do so for others. They also extended very attractive loan arrangements that can be used by any bank. Many believe these actions should be more than enough to provide stability.

While the government has stepped in to cover depositors, this intervention is far different than what happened in 2008 when the government also bailed out bond and equity shareholders. With the government takeover, the equity of SVB is worthless as is that of Signature Bank. Thankfully, the ETFs we recommend in our core portfolio had immaterial exposure to these stocks (< 0.1%).  

However, our core portfolio overweighs U.S. small-cap value ETFs that have exposure to many other regional bank stocks which have been hit hard by association. Fear-driven market pullbacks are never fully logical, so one never knows what will happen in the next few days and weeks, but there are good reasons to believe that SVB and Signature Bank were outliers in many respects and that other small and medium-sized banks are in a stronger position.

It is very common in fear-driven market declines for small-cap stocks to suffer greater losses and then rise more quickly during a recovery than the broader market. The COVID crash in March of 2020 was the most recent example of this phenomenon. We believe one reason small-cap value stocks have historically delivered returns higher than the broad market is their greater volatility in times of stress. To be in a position to capture the potentially higher returns and diversification benefit of investing in these stocks, we must stay the course.

Anytime there is stress in the financial markets, it is an opportunity to assess whether we are taking undue risk. Investing is never risk free, but our goal is always to maximize our return for a given amount of risk. There are already some good reminders coming out of the current situation:

  1. Make sure the cash you hold at any given bank is below the FDIC insurance limit. There are plenty of good options to help you do this even for cash balances in the millions. If you, someone you know, or the business you work for is in this situation, please reach out to us and we can help direct you to solid options based on the specific needs.

     

  2. Reassess any concentrations you may have in your wealth. One of the major reasons SVB was susceptible to a bank run was the concentration of its depositor base and the high exposure in its investments to a single risk – rising interest rates. The likelihood of any given company going bankrupt is small, but the consequences can be catastrophic if a significant portion of your wealth and livelihood are tied to a single entity. The power of diversification across all aspects of your current and future wealth should not be underestimated as an effective means of protection.

Financial market stress and the associated volatility can be unnerving. We strive to provide peace of mind by designing our portfolios to keep clients on track to reach their goals through a variety of market conditions.

 

 

 

 

Disclosure: All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such.

Quarter in Review: Q4 2022 Market Update

Quarter in Review: Q4 2022 Market Update

 

History only gets written after the fact, but at this moment, it feels like the bear market of 2022 will be one that is remembered and studied for many years to come. The abysmal performance of bonds was most noteworthy with the primary U.S. bond benchmark index posting its worst decline since inception, falling 13% for the year. To pile on, global stocks were down 18%, marking the first time in 50 years that both bonds and stocks have fallen in a calendar year.

Only time will also tell us whether 2022 will mark the beginning of a decadal change from an era of falling rates and rock bottom interest rates when growth stocks and long-term bonds seemed to go in only one direction. But in the short term, investors who seemingly ignored the ever-growing interest rate risk for fear of missing out were dealt a serious blow with long-term government bonds down 31% and U.S. growth stocks falling 29%. With minimal exposure to these assets, many of our portfolios were able to deliver better returns than their benchmarks.

There is much uncertainty going into the year ahead, and that likely means continued volatility. 2022 reminded us that volatility can take many forms, not just wild swings day to day, but months of up followed by months of down. But we do know that with each passing month of down markets, investor expectations become more pessimistic, and it becomes easier to exceed expectations and for a rebound to be sustained over the long term. Our goal is to be positioned to capture that growth when it happens.

Disclosure: All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional.

Inflation: Our Thoughts and How We Respond

Inflation: Our Thoughts and How We Respond

 

As investors, we all share the goal of growing our assets over time. It feels great to see your balance rise and earn a sense of security through diligent saving and investing. However, it’s important to look beyond the ledger line to understand how much our assets can provide for us in real terms. The actual goal is maintaining and improving purchasing power with our savings, and inflation can be a concern even when we see markets trending up. Prudent financial planning accounts for inflation so you’re prepared across economic conditions.

With inflation in the news for the past several months, it can be difficult to determine how much of the heightened concern is noise and how much is worth giving stock to. While it is undeniable that we are currently experiencing increased inflation—having risen 5.4% over the last 12 months as of September, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics—some level of inflation is par for the course. Let’s explore what inflation is in more detail, common concerns we hear from our clients around inflation, and some ideas on how to help protect your portfolio when inflation is high.

What is inflation?

In its most basic sense, inflation is “the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time” as explained by Investopedia. While it is described as less purchasing power, how it affects us as everyday consumers is through the increasing price of goods and services. A common measure of inflation is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is calculated by taking the average weighted cost of a basket of goods and dividing it by the cost over a prior period. Recent inflation has had an outsized effect in certain areas. The cost of fuel and gasoline are up 43% and 42% respectively from 12 months ago. The prices of used cars and trucks are also up 24%. However, if you look at core inflation, which is the CPI excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, the 12-month rate drops to 4%, which is much closer to historical averages. The Fed also expects increased inflation to be temporary, with projections at 2.1–2.2% in 2022 through 2024 per a report by Reuters. You can dive into the data in the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ table of 12-month percentage change if you’re curious to learn more.

With inflation running hotter this year, what’s driving it? We typically see three different inputs that spur inflation, including: increased demand without enough supply, steady demand with falling supply, and the cycle of increasing wages and costs due to expectations about future inflation. The supply chain shutdown caused by COVID, as well as the demand rebound from the ongoing vaccination effort and reopening of the economy, are likely contributing to the increase we’re observing now.

What are the fears?

Inflationary concerns often stem from fears of the Fed responding by raising interest rates, leading to more costly borrowing and slower economic growth. However, the subsequent cooling may lower consumer demand and create deflationary pressure. It’s a delicate balance that the Federal Reserve seeks to maintain by adjusting monetary policy, but what does a potential interest rate hike to fight inflation mean for our investments? Opinion varies on short-term signals for rising rates. However, when investing for the long term, we find there hasn’t been significant correlation between interest rate changes and stock market performance over extended periods. In comparison, bond prices tend to fall as interest rates rise since existing lower-yielding bonds become less attractive relative to newer bonds with higher rates. We combat this by weighting short- and intermediate-term bonds more heavily to limit interest rate sensitivity on the fixed income side.

Another common concern we hear from our clients is fear of government overspending. However, there are two key points to remember. The first is that inflation isn’t inherently bad, and a consistent, low level of inflation often indicates steadily increasing productivity for the economy. The second is that government spending doesn’t necessarily cause inflation, and it depends on how the money is spent. There is a great analogy from The Guardian describing government spending and the economy as a flower bed:

It’s possible that overwatering could cause spillover, but it depends on how you water it and where. If you pour water in one place that is already saturated, it’s likely to flood and cause the flowers to die. In contrast, if you shower water over the whole bed, or focus on the driest areas, the water will be soaked up and the flowers will grow.

The article also highlights how massive spending following the 2008 financial crisis and recovery did not cause runaway inflation. Instead, inflation has been near record lows over the last decade.

How do we respond?

We believe the most reliable way to protect yourself from different economic conditions like inflation is to have a balanced, diversified portfolio that includes a mix of assets with real expected returns (total portfolio return less inflation). The amount allocated between stocks, bonds, and other investments like real estate will vary, but it’s during inflationary periods like this when staying on the sidelines and holding too much cash can erode purchasing power over time.

We also invest in specific asset classes to help navigate inflation. Value stocks tend to perform well in inflationary environments as investors seek present income and strong cash flows. Sectors like energy, consumer staples, and financials are prominent in value equities and often perform well during these periods. On the fixed income side, we utilize government credit in our bond allocations, which tends to be less sensitive to inflationary pressure than corporate credit. Merriman portfolios also feature alternative specialized investments in real estate, reinsurance, and alternative lending. These assets have real expected returns above inflation and are less correlated with the stock and bond markets. Real estate tends to perform better during periods of rising inflation as investors increase rents to adjust to the changing prices. Reinsurance contracts can also respond to rising costs and rates by increasing premiums annually and keeping the collateral invested in assets with at or above inflation levels of return. Alternative lenders utilize floating rates which provide flexibility in a volatile rate market as well. Specialized investments offer an alternative to purchasing additional bonds for diversification from equities and provide tools for responding to inflation.

Inflation is an important reality when investing, whether it’s how it affects portfolios or the economy as a whole. We enjoy diving into the causes, concerns, and strategies to address inflation, and hopefully provide insight to ease any worries. At Merriman, we will continue to monitor inflation and ensure we’re positioned properly to navigate changes, up or down.

 

 

 

All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax or legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Merriman and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Merriman unless a client service agreement is in place.

 

Inflation Is Rising – Should I Be Worried?

Inflation Is Rising – Should I Be Worried?

Inflation is rising—should I be worried? What can I do to protect my wealth against inflation if it continues rising?

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—the generally accepted measure of inflation—increased by 5.3% for the 12 months ending in August 2021. Prices for all items less (the more volatile) food and energy rose 4.0% over the last 12 months ending in August. This is a much larger increase in inflation than we’ve seen in over a decade. In the decade earlier, the annual increase in the CPI has remained lower than 2%. In fact, for many of those years, it was even below 1.5%.

With inflation on the rise, many clients are asking what we are doing to protect their assets against this increase in the cost of everything.

A colleague of mine recently shared a chart that I found very telling:

Chart produced by Craig L. Israelsen, Ph.D. 
www.7TwelvePortfolio.com

This data shows that investing in stocks has provided a solid defense against inflation—whether we were in a rising interest rate environment or a declining interest rate environment.

The data suggests that in higher inflation periods, small cap stocks have been particularly valuable.

The economy is a very complex organism with so many different variables that will be affected if indeed inflation continues to grow, yet one foundational reason that stocks are a good defense against inflation is that companies pass on the higher cost of materials and goods to consumers. As consumers, this does mean we pay higher prices for things; and as investors, it means that we grow our portfolios, earning a premium above the inflation rate.

Our research team is monitoring the current trajectory of inflation.  Your portfolio at Merriman is already prepared for the potential of continued rising inflation. We “tilt” our portfolios towards small cap stocks. Other ways your portfolio is protected against inflation include using REIT’s and inflation protected bonds (where appropriate), keeping our bonds “short” and “Intermediate” in duration – which also helps in keeping, what we feel, is the right level of defense against stock market drops.  We use cash flow modeling to explore what it may look like if inflation was to remain high for each of our clients.

You have worked with your advisor here to determine right mix of stocks for your situation.  We believe keeping the right mix of “offense” and “defense” has been and continues to be the best way to balance the constant and changing risks posed to your investment portfolio. If you aren’t sure if you have the right balance for your situation or wish to understand how higher inflation can affect you specifically, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us for assistance.

 

 

All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax or legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Merriman and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Merriman unless a client service agreement is in place.

 

Thinking Through Cryptocurrencies | Part 3

Thinking Through Cryptocurrencies | Part 3

 

It seems like everyone nowadays is talking about cryptocurrencies. Whether it’s the proselytizers on CNBC or the techie next door, it feels as if everyone is either talking about or buying into this next big thing.

Trying to adequately explain an emerging technology and it’s economic impact in less then a few thousand words is bound to neglect certain facets of the subject. This series attempts to cover the technical specification of cryptocurrencies, how they can be viewed in an investment environment, the narratives that accompany this new technology, and the future impact, applications, and risk of the cryptocurrency universe.

If you missed Part 1 or Part 2, check them out.  In Part 3, we consider what the future could look like.

 

 

What Might the Future Look Like?

Cryptocurrencies are experiencing a golden age where new types of assets and new uses for blockchain technologies are emerging every day. However, in this case, widespread use does not automatically translate to amazing long-term investment returns. Sustaining long-term high investment returns requires a combination of low supply and high demand.

When it comes to low supply, there is certainly a limit to the amount of a given cryptocurrency. However, new cryptocurrencies can and have continued to be created. Dogecoin was launched in 2013 and now has a circulation value which has exceeded $80B. Polkadot was launched in 2017 and has a circulation value that has exceeded $10B. When supply dwindles and prices rise, entrepreneurial spirits enter markets and create supply, especially when the barriers to entry are relatively low.

Cryptocurrencies have a few hurdles ahead of them. The most notable of these is the possible environmental impact of cryptocurrency mining. According to Digiconomist, the annualized carbon footprint of Bitcoin mining is comparable to the country of Hungary and is growing every year. As more and more individuals flock to the cryptocurrency space, the power necessary to rectify transactions grows. There are new cryptocurrency assets such as Cardano that seek to use optimized protocols to decrease the power required. However, because most cryptocurrencies utilize a proof-of-work methodology, there is a lower limit on the computation required for the cryptocurrencies to remain secure. This means that there will always be a certain energy requirement for these cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has also made a name for itself in non-reputable markets such as money laundering, drug trade, and even human trafficking. Blockchain analysis company Chainalysis tracked just under $930,000 worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum payments to specific addresses associated with child sexual abuse material. This was a 32% increase in payments from 2018 and a total of a 310% increase since 2017. Financial institutions in the U.S. filed over 2,000,000 suspicious activity reports (SARs) in 2019. The increasing use of cryptocurrencies in illegal transactions makes it harder for U.S. organizations to trace the financial trail.

Chainalysis also reported on Bitcoin use in terrorism financing. Known terror organizations would create campaigns to “donate to the jihad” with QR codes leading to Bitcoin addresses.

It’s important to point out that while these illegal organizations did use Bitcoin, there are other non-cryptocurrency methods that they could have used. Before Bitcoin, and even today, many black-market or illicit deals are done in cash. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers endorsed an idea published by Harvard president emeritus Peter Sands to all but get rid of cash. A case study in Missouri looked at the mid-1990s transition from distribution of federal welfare via cashable check to a preloaded debit card. Researchers found that crime in areas that moved away from cash dropped roughly by 10%.

Another inherent risk to the cryptocurrency markets that has increased its probability of late is Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies becoming illegal to own. China has recently banned financial institutions from offering services involving cryptocurrencies. The U.S. government also showed its ability to pursue Bitcoin transactions after the Colonial Pipelines hack in spring of 2021. The hack, which yielded hackers $4.4 million was recovered as the government pursued the digital addresses associated with the hackers. The combination of Chinese regulation and the ability of governments to track and recover stolen or ransomed cryptocurrency assets is a direct blow to the claim that cryptocurrencies are outside of government control.

So where does this leave the average investor when it comes to Bitcoin? As an emerging asset class, it’s possible that the Bitcoin narrative is a self-fulfilling prophecy. In a period of low interest rates and inflation concerns, there are some good arguments as to why putting a small portion of a portfolio in cryptocurrency assets might provide some benefit, just as a small allocation to gold can provide benefits in certain macroeconomic environments.

Cryptocurrencies are volatile and may provide some correlation benefit with a small, value-tilted portfolio. The recent rapid increase in price across the cryptocurrency universe is fairly concerning as no other time in history has seen an asset class that has grown at such a rapid rate relative to inflation. It is also important to remember that in the case of gold rushes, it was the merchants who traded in goods who on average made the most profit, not the miners themselves.

We at Merriman do not shy away from new or emerging asset classes. Historically, we have either started new funds or have been some of the first investors in an asset class. The research and portfolio management team at Merriman has been monitoring the cryptocurrency market for many years.

As long-term investors, we try to develop our portfolios to maximize the probability of getting higher returns than the market. While Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets have shown extremely high returns for the past decade, this is not necessarily indicative of future returns. As said on almost every investment document, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”. At this moment in time, the cryptocurrency market is too risky and speculative to recommend in our portfolios. This stance may change in the future are the market evolves. Even though we do not recommend holding cryptocurrencies in our portfolio, it is OK to buy a little with some play money. It’s fine to play roulette at a casino as long as you only bet what you are willing to lose.

At Merriman, we will continue to monitor and research cryptocurrency assets so that if an expected return benefit appears, we can implement it for our clients.

 

Disclosure: The material is presented solely for information purposes and has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be relied upon as such.

It is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Opinions expressed by Merriman are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written.  Economies and markets fluctuate.  Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.  Any reference to an index is included for illustrative purposes only, as an index is not a security in which an investment can be made.  Indices are unmanaged vehicles that serve as market indicators and do not account for the deduction of management fees and/or transaction costs generally associated with investable products. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional.  Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Merriman and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Merriman unless a client service agreement is in place. All composite data and corresponding calculations are available upon request.

Thinking Through Cryptocurrencies | Part 2

Thinking Through Cryptocurrencies | Part 2

 

It seems like everyone nowadays is talking about cryptocurrencies. Whether it’s the proselytizers on CNBC or the techie next door, it feels as if everyone is either talking about or buying into this next big thing.

Trying to adequately explain an emerging technology and it’s economic impact in less then a few thousand words is bound to neglect certain facets of the subject. This series attempts to cover the technical specification of cryptocurrencies, how they can be viewed in an investment environment, the narratives that accompany this new technology, and the future impact, applications, and risk of the cryptocurrency universe.

 

Recent Market Conditions

Economist Robert Shiller, the 2013 Economics Nobel Prize co-recipient, noted a similarity between the current Bitcoin movement and the bimetallism movement of the late 1800s. Shiller’s recent book Narrative Economics focuses on the stories or ideas that we tell ourselves that influence our economic decisions.

The narrative of Bitcoin is a fascinating story to tell. It starts with intrigue as the founder (or founders) of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, has never been identified or even confirmed to exist. This creates a great human-interest story and helps to grab the attention of individuals.

We follow the human-interest story by delving into the complexity of cryptographic hash functions and network protocols that few understand. This complexity and need for experts to understand presents the next draw of Bitcoin.

Similar to young people of the late 1800s and their enthusiasm with the abstruse monetary economics of bimetallism, Bitcoin advocates take pleasure in the fact that it is only a select few (including themselves) that understand this complicated subject.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have also caught the eye of various pop culture icons. In January of 2020, Bitcoin rose 20% in a matter of hours after Elon Musk famously changed his Twitter Bio to #bitcoin. Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter and Square, has been a vocal supporter of Bitcoin and even sold his very first tweet in the form of a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) for 1,630 Ethereum (or $2.9 million). This allure of seeing individuals with household names using cryptocurrencies provides yet another boost in the awareness and interest created by the narrative of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Add to this the fact that in the past eight years (11/5/15 – 4/26/21) Bitcoin has had an annualized return of 82%. This has led to many sites and brokerages promoting advertisements showing these high levels of returns without mentioning the fact that Bitcoin has also suffered three 75% corrections in the 10+ years of its existence. Unfortunately, our human brains were wired millions of years ago and tend to value recent information over past information. Throughout history, this wiring has led to commodity fads. One of the earliest and most spectacular was “tulip mania,” a three-year period in the mid-1600s when tulip bulbs appreciated at an annualized rate of 200% per year.

While we have seen many of these types of narratives before, the combination of them in Bitcoin provides something attractive and seemingly new; and the ease and accessibility has never been higher, facilitating high demand. Financial applications such as PayPal can give just about anyone with a few bucks access to buying this exciting new asset class.

 

Stay tuned for the last installment where we discuss the future of cryptocurrencies. And if you missed our first installment, you can find it here

 

Disclosure: The material is presented solely for information purposes and has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be relied upon as such.

It is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Opinions expressed by Merriman are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written.  Economies and markets fluctuate.  Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.  Any reference to an index is included for illustrative purposes only, as an index is not a security in which an investment can be made.  Indices are unmanaged vehicles that serve as market indicators and do not account for the deduction of management fees and/or transaction costs generally associated with investable products. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional.  Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Merriman and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Merriman unless a client service agreement is in place. All composite data and corresponding calculations are available upon request.