Common Investor Mistakes During Market Corrections

Common Investor Mistakes During Market Corrections

 

When it comes to investing, market corrections are inevitable. Since 1950, there have been 37 declines in the S&P 500 of 10% or more—or approximately one every two years. Enduring these corrections is the price we pay as long-term investors striving to meet our financial goals. How we act during these time periods is what separates the rookies from the professionals and can dramatically alter how successful we are in achieving those goals.

We all tend to have a higher risk tolerance when markets are performing well. During a review with our financial advisor in the comforts of a home or office, we can easily imagine a world where stocks might be 10% to 20% cheaper on paper and how that may impact our financial goals. However, when we think about future risks in the markets, we tend to underestimate how we will feel in the moment. We lose sight of what else is happening in the world that is causing the markets to decline and how that might impact us personally. This year is no different, and the laundry list of reasons is long:

  • The war in Ukraine is costly
  • Inflation is the highest in 40 years
  • The Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy
  • The supply chain is a mess
  • Mortgage rates are rising at the same time housing prices are at all-time highs
  • The pandemic is not over
  • Market valuations are too expensive, and we are overdue for a reset

The bottom line is, there is always a reason for why we experience market volatility, and how that impacts us personally can create stress, fear, and anxiety. When we let our emotions take over, we naturally have an urge to do something about it. These emotional reactions can lead to mistakes that can reduce the probability of meeting our finance and investment goals. Below are common mistakes investors make during market corrections and steps we can take to help mitigate costly errors.

 

Mistake #1: Looking at the market daily

When headlines are scary, the daily moves in the stock market are volatile and unpredictable. Checking the market or your portfolio frequently will only heighten any fear and anxiety and may result in poor investing decisions. During difficult markets, it is important to remember that you have an entire team working for you at Merriman. We have designed your portfolio using decades of academic research to weather all types of market environments so you can have peace of mind. We are also here to take on any blame for when things do not go as planned. You should take advantage of the resources at Merriman and schedule a time with your advisor to help refocus on your long-term plan.

 

Mistake #2: Deviating from an investment plan or not having a plan at all

Another reason you have an advisor at Merriman is to create an investment plan that aligns with your goals, return expectations, and risk profile. The plan is a customized, long-term strategy meant to withstand multiple market cycles. If you have the urge to change your plan during a market correction, then have a conversation with your advisor and ask the following questions: Have my long-term goals changed? Am I still on track to meet those goals? If I deviate from my investment plan, how will that impact the probability of successfully meeting my goals? These questions will help reduce any reactionary emotions and shift your mindset back to the big picture.

 

Mistake #3: Trading more frequently or trying to time the bottom

Day trading and market timing strategies are automated systems that utilize algorithms and programmed rules designed to execute trades in milliseconds. This places the human day trader at a significant disadvantage. While the data supports that day trading or attempts to time the market are not additive to long-term returns, market corrections can be an excellent time to be a buyer.
However, it is vital to have an investment plan in place so you are prepared to execute in the moment. As an example, a rebalancing strategy is one method that is highly effective for long-term results. This removes emotions from the equation and allows for a disciplined plan of attack during market downturns.

 

While your feelings play a vital role in determining the right long-term strategy for you, we cannot let emotions dictate our investing decisions, particularly during market corrections. This can lead to short-term mistakes that, left unchecked, can have negative impacts on your retirement goals. A disciplined investing approach based on facts, not emotions, is the winning formula.

 

 

 

Disclosure: All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional.

Considerations for Being Self-Employed Versus an Employee

Considerations for Being Self-Employed Versus an Employee

 

It’s no question that the pandemic has resulted in major shifts in the workforce. Whether it be the large-scale layoffs in March 2020 or the Great Resignation that more recently impacted personnel changes, we know that millions of Americans have left their jobs due to burn out and/or to pursue starting their own businesses in the hope of finding something that brings more personal fulfillment. In 2021, there were over 5 million new business applications submitted, which is an astonishing 55% jump from 2019.1

If the idea of starting up your own business has been on your mind, you have more than likely asked yourself if it’s the right thing to do financially—or at the very least are curious about all the differences between working for a company or being self-employed. We highlight the pros and cons for both options below.

 

Taxes

First and foremost, taxes are the greatest change when making the switch from employee to self-employed. Most employed individuals are familiar with various line items for federal and state taxes, Social Security, and Medicare amongst many other potential employer-provided benefits (more on those other benefits later). When you’re self-employed, you, of course, still pay federal and state taxes, but in place of the regular line items for Social Security and Medicare, the IRS adds a self-employment tax. Typically, the Social Security and Medicare amounts are figured by employers, but self-employed individuals (or their tax professionals) need to calculate out what their self-employment tax looks like. The self-employment tax rate is 15.3% which consists of two parts: 12.4% for Social Security and 2.9% for Medicare. And, just as employers do, you can deduct the employer portion of your self-employment tax to calculate your adjusted gross income.2

Sticking on the topic of deductions, self-employed individuals can deduct expenses for their business that can reduce taxable income. Things like phone bills, internet bills, home office expenses, business travel, and health insurance are all common examples of deductible items for the self-employed, and these are all things you can’t typically deduct as an employee. While finding deductions can sound fun, it also means a lot more work on the administrative side by tracking each of these items and having proper documentation to help you make sure you’re maximizing your deductions.

 

Savings

As an employee, you can maximize your pre-tax or Roth 401(k) contributions up to the IRS limit of $20,500 or $27,000 for those age 50 and above (2022). When you’re self-employed, you are eligible to make contributions to a solo 401(k) as both the employee and the employer. This means you can contribute up to $20,500 for your employee contribution then contribute up to 25% of your compensation on top of that for the employer match.

With regard to savings, one item that could be considered a small perk of being self-employed is having the freedom to choose which custodian you utilize for your retirement savings.

 

Benefits

Going back to the topic of benefits, employees are usually offered benefits through their employers, such as paid time off, health and life insurance, free/discounted fitness memberships, retirement plan matching or employee stock awards, donation matching, paid family leave, adoption assistance, and sometimes even retailer specific discounts. These benefits can certainly provide peace of mind beyond their monetary value for some and don’t exist when you’re self-employed.

 

Flexibility/Stability

One huge benefit of being self-employed is the amount of flexibility it provides. You can decide to work from home, a local café, or even beachside. You choose your own hours and aren’t limited to the amount of paid time off you’re allotted each year when you feel like taking a vacation. You’re also your own boss, so there’s no risk of having a supervisor managing you and potentially causing friction. On the flip side, there also aren’t any paid holidays or sick days. Without the oversight of a manager and being fully responsibility for the growth of your business, it takes a great amount of motivation and focus to be self-employed, which could also result in longer hours. There may be periods, especially in the early stages, where earnings may be lower or inconsistent, so making sure you’re prepared will be of utmost importance. Being okay with failure before finding success is a common theme amongst entrepreneurs, and remember that what you gain in freedom, you may also lose in security.

Being an employee typically means stable income; however, this also means your livelihood is dependent on your company’s success. The stability of working as an employee can be more than a steady source of income—it can also mean long-term career development and opportunities and more convenient access to building long-term professional relationships.

 

It’s quite clear that there are many considerations for anyone thinking about making career changes, but there’s no reason you should have to think things through on your own. It’s ultimately a personal choice, but we recommend getting in touch with your advisor or clicking here to connect with an advisor at Merriman to discuss what makes sense for you and your lifestyle.

 

 

Sources

1 https://www.today.com/video/american-workers-are-becoming-their-own-bosses-through-the-great-resignation-130454597857

2 https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/self-employment-tax-social-security-and-medicare-taxes

 

Disclosure: The material is presented solely for information purposes and is not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The information presented here has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable; however, Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Merriman does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be relied upon as such. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Merriman and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Merriman unless a client service agreement is in place.

 

 

The 5 Biggest Financial Planning Mistakes Made by Tech Professionals | Mistake #4

The 5 Biggest Financial Planning Mistakes Made by Tech Professionals | Mistake #4

 

 

I love working with the tech community. I started my career at Microsoft and have since been inspired by the creative and innovative minds of folks working at tech companies large and small. I also enjoy working with tech employees, because as a personal finance nerd, I get to help people navigate the plethora of benefits available that are often only available at tech companies. Between RSUs, ESPP, Non-Qualified or Incentive Stock Options, Mega Backdoor Roth 401(k)s, Deferred Compensation, Legal Services, and even Pet Insurance, it is the benefits equivalent of picking from a menu of a Michelin three-star-rated restaurant.

 

Through my own experience as a tech employee and my experiences now as an advisor working with tech professionals, I’ve identified some of the biggest financial planning mistakes that can hold the tech community back from achieving financial independence and success.

 

Mistake #4 – Poor Risk Management

 

Here are some fun facts for your next socially distant dinner party. If you are a 40-year-old male and you were in a room with one hundred other 40-year-old men, statistically speaking, two of those men will pass away before they reach their 50th birthdays. Another seven will have passed away before they reach their 60th birthdays, and another thirteen won’t make it to their 70th birthday. Close to a quarter of forty-year-old men will die before age 70. Do I have your attention now?

 

I don’t bring these grim statistics up to scare you. I bring them up because I’ve seen first-hand how a failure to plan for risk and the realities of life can cause significant financial harm during an already emotionally devastating time. Nobody enjoys talking about death and disability, but it is a fact of life that we will all pass on at some point. It is only fair to the people we love that we at least protect them financially.

 

Estate Planning and Insurance Planning are often the two most overlooked areas in a financial plan for folks that have not worked with an advisor. Financial advisors will also tell you this is often where we see our clients procrastinate the most. There are many things in life that feel urgent but are not actually important. We put off the important items, like drafting an Estate Plan, to answer our emails and do other tasks that have more of an immediate pull on our time and energy. There will always be those items to complete that feel pressing, but try to think through the consequences of not completing your will or obtaining life insurance if, in fact, your time has actually run out. If you’re looking for an accountability partner and guidance through this process, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

 

Be sure to read our previous and upcoming blog posts for additional mistakes to avoid as a tech professional.

Disclosure: The material is presented solely for information purposes and has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be relied upon as such.

The 5 Biggest Financial Planning Mistakes Made by Tech Professionals | Mistake #2

The 5 Biggest Financial Planning Mistakes Made by Tech Professionals | Mistake #2

 

 

I love working with the tech community. I started my career at Microsoft and have since been inspired by the creative and innovative minds of folks working at tech companies large and small. I also enjoy working with tech employees, because as a personal finance nerd, I get to help people navigate the plethora of benefits available that are often only available at tech companies. Between RSUs, ESPP, Non-Qualified or Incentive Stock Options, Mega Backdoor Roth 401(k)s, Deferred Compensation, Legal Services, and even Pet Insurance, it is the benefits equivalent of picking from a menu of a Michelin three-star-rated restaurant.

 

Through my own experience as a tech employee and my experiences now as an advisor working with tech professionals, I’ve identified some of the biggest financial planning mistakes that can hold the tech community back from achieving financial independence and success.

 

Mistake #2 – Building and Maintaining Concentrated Stock Positions

 

I consider a concentrated position to be any investment that comprises over a quarter of your investable assets. It can be easy to accumulate a concentrated stock position in the same company that is responsible for your paycheck. If you receive stock as part of your compensation, without a disciplined plan to sell shares on an ongoing basis, you will continue to accumulate more and more company stock. Over the past several years, countless families have become wealthy because of the stock compensation they’ve received and its seemingly never-ending climb in price. While the strategy of holding onto RSUs and ESPP over the recent past has worked out incredibly well, we know that continuing to maintain a concentrated stock position is incredibly risky if you want to ensure you maintain your newly built wealth.

 

There are two explanations for not reducing a concentrated position that I hear most often: (1) My company has outperformed the rest of the market several years in a row. If I believe in my company and our growth prospects for the future, why would I sell? (2) If I sell my company stock now, I’ll have to pay a significant amount of tax on the gain. Let’s debunk each of these as reasons not to diversify:

 

(1) Typically, returns of a single stock position are intensely more volatile than the returns of a market index. This can work out in your favor, or it can work to your detriment. Historically, about 12% of stocks result in a 100% loss.* In addition, approximately 40% of stocks end up with negative lifetime returns, and the median stock underperformed the market by greater than 50%.* This means that a few star performers drive the positive average returns of the market. The odds of randomly picking one of these extreme winners is 1 in 15.* If you’ve been lucky enough to hold one of these outperformers, I encourage some humility around acknowledging that maybe being in the right place at the right time has attributed to your rapid accumulation of wealth.

 

Companies that achieve such success and become the largest company in their sector may become subject to what is called the winner’s curse. Since the 1970s, data shows that sector leaders underperform their sector by 30% in the five years after becoming the largest company in that sector.* Over a long time horizon, you are probably more likely to obtain positive investment returns by ensuring you hold the future Microsofts and Amazons of the world through broad diversification, not concentration.

 

(2) I hate to tell you this, but unless you hold onto an investment until you die, you will have to pay tax on the growth at some point. I encourage people to think of paying long-term capital gains taxes as a good thing, because it means your investments went up and you made money. A surprisingly small fluctuation in stock price can wipe out any benefit of delaying the recognition of capital gains tax. As advisors like to say, “Don’t let the tax tail wag the dog.” If you’d like to discuss your situation, don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

Be sure to read our previous and upcoming blog posts for additional mistakes to avoid as a tech professional.

Source: * Avoid Gambler’s Ruin: Bridging Concentrated Stock and Diversification 

Disclosure: The material is presented solely for information purposes and has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be relied upon as such.

What Women Need Know About Working with Financial Advisors | Tip #3

What Women Need Know About Working with Financial Advisors | Tip #3

I want to acknowledge that all women are wonderfully unique individuals and therefore these tips will not be applicable to all of us equally and may be very helpful to some men and nonbinary individuals. This is written in an effort to support women, not to exclude, generalize, or stereotype any group.

 

I was recently reminded of a troubling statistic: Two-thirds of women do not trust their advisors. Having worked in the financial services industry for nearly two decades, this is unfortunately not surprising to me. But it is troubling, largely because it’s so preventable.

Whether you have a long-standing relationship with an advisor, are just starting to consider working with a financial planner, or are considering making a change, there are some simple tips all women should be aware of to improve this relationship and strengthen their financial futures.

Tip #3 – Know the Difference Between Risk Aware & Risk Averse

Countless studies have shown that women are not necessarily as risk averse as they were once thought to be. As a group, we just tend to be more risk aware than men are. Why does this matter? First of all, I think it’s important to be risk aware. If you aren’t aware of the risk, you can’t possibly make informed decisions. But by not understanding the difference, women sometimes incorrectly identify as conservative investors and then invest inappropriately for their goals and risk tolerance. Since most advisors are well-practiced in helping people identify their risk tolerance, this is an important conversation to have with your advisor. During these conversations, risk-aware people can sometimes focus on temporary monetary loss and lose sight of the other type of risk: not meeting goals. If you complete a simple risk-tolerance questionnaire (there are many versions available online), women may be more likely to answer questions conservatively simply because they are focusing on the potential downside. Here is an example of a common question:

The chart below shows the greatest 1-year loss and the highest 1-year gain on 3 different hypothetical investments of $10,000. Given the potential gain or loss in any 1 year, I would invest my money in …

Source: Vanguard           

A risk-aware, goal-oriented person is much more likely to select A because the question is not in terms they relate to. It focuses on the loss (and gain) in a 1-year period without providing any information about the performance over the period of time aligned with their goal or the probability of the investment helping them to achieve their goal. A risk-averse person is going to want to avoid risk no matter the situation. A risk-aware person needs to know that while the B portfolio might have lost $1,020 in a 1-year period, historically it has earned an average of 6% per year, is diversified and generally recovers from losses within 1–3 years, statistically has an 86% probability of outperforming portfolio A in a 10-year period, and is more likely to help them reach their specific goal.

A risk-aware person needs to be able to weigh the pros and cons so when presented with limited information, they are more likely to opt for the conservative choice. Know this about yourself and ask for more information before making a decision based on limiting risk.

Having a conversation about your risk tolerance, the level of risk needed to meet your goals, and asking for more information is always easier when you follow tip #1—work with an advisor you like. There are many different considerations when hiring an advisor: Are they a fiduciary? Do they practice comprehensive planning? How are they compensated? What is their investment philosophy? They may check off all your other boxes, but if you don’t like them, you are unlikely to get all you need out of the relationship. If you’re looking for an advisor you’re compatible with, consider perusing our advisor bios.

Be sure to read our previous and upcoming blog posts for additional tips to help women get the most out of working with a financial advisor.

Is the Market Running on Irrational Hope?

Is the Market Running on Irrational Hope?

 

With coronavirus cases rising, unemployment at historic levels, and ongoing protests across America, the strong market rebound feels like it could be driven by irrational hope. Are the markets assuming there is an effective vaccine by the fall? Are they ignoring the effects of a worldwide 100-year pandemic that has killed over 650,000 people as of July 30th?

While there are certainly times when markets can behave irrationally, such times are few and far between and usually concentrated in a certain asset class or sector. At this point, with the exception of the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), we do not see signs that the global equity markets are acting irrationally. It is important to distinguish that this belief does not mean that the market might not experience another significant downturn.

Market prices represent the aggregate predictions of thousands of professional and individual investors regarding the value of the company’s future earnings plus the book value of its assets. The operative words here are prediction and future. The stock markets typically bottom when investors have the most fear and have the bleakest outlook on the future. Historically, bottoms have typically coincided with the point of peak unemployment. A rise in the stock market does not mean that the recession is over or that it might not continue for several more years. It simply means that investors are anticipating a better future down the road.

For example, according to Charles Schwab’s analysis of data from Refinitiv, the market consensus estimates for S&P 500 companies for Q3 2020 is a -23.5% drop from the previous year. That does not seem very optimistic to me. Ned Davis and Charles Schwab recently showed that historically the S&P 500 has performed best when year-over-year earnings growth was between -20% and 5%. It seems very counterintuitive that stocks would be rising when earnings growth is negative, but again, markets are predicting the future, not what is happening at present.

Many of you are probably still wondering or worried about the market going down from here. As the future is uncertain, the answer is, unfortunately, yes, the market could go down from here. But that does not mean you should pull all your money out.

Ironically, your risk of losing money in the markets today is less than it was in January. Markets account for uncertainty by keeping prices below fair value. The difference between true fair value and the market price is the compensation investors receive for taking risk. In times of perceived low uncertainty, market prices are close to fair value and investors get little compensation for taking risk. As the pandemic has taught us, risk is always with us whether we see it coming or not. Currently, because of the high degree of uncertainty, market prices incorporate more downside risk, and investors who stay in the market are getting higher compensation for taking that risk. Taking risk is a necessary part of investing, but as investors, one of the most important things we can do for long-term success is to ensure that we are being appropriately compensated for those risks. Staying in markets when we receive high compensation for taking risk is a key part.

I would love to have a crystal ball that could tell you how the market is going to move tomorrow or next month or next year. It seems very possible that the economic recovery could slow, and the market could go sideways or take another dip. It also seems very possible that through a combination of growing knowledge, human adaptation, and government stimulus, the economic impact will not be as severe as some fear, and the market will continue its steady climb. A wide variety of data suggests that current market valuations are not irrational and that markets are appropriately accounting for the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the economic recovery that will ultimately occur. There are plenty of investors who are pulling money out or who are continuing to sit on the sidelines as well as plenty of buyers. Our recommendation is to continue with your target equity allocation. This approach allows you to benefit from the relatively high compensation you are getting for taking on risk right now while providing sufficient downside protection that your financial well-being is not at risk.

 

 

Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No client should assume that future performance of any securities, asset classes, or strategy will be profitable, or equal to the previous described performance. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the U.S stock market.