Inflation is rising—should I be worried? What can I do to protect my wealth against inflation if it continues rising?

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—the generally accepted measure of inflation—increased by 5.3% for the 12 months ending in August 2021. Prices for all items less (the more volatile) food and energy rose 4.0% over the last 12 months ending in August. This is a much larger increase in inflation than we’ve seen in over a decade. In the decade earlier, the annual increase in the CPI has remained lower than 2%. In fact, for many of those years, it was even below 1.5%.

With inflation on the rise, many clients are asking what we are doing to protect their assets against this increase in the cost of everything.

A colleague of mine recently shared a chart that I found very telling:

Chart produced by Craig L. Israelsen, Ph.D.    www.7TwelvePortfolio.com

This data shows that investing in stocks has provided a solid defense against inflation—whether we were in a rising interest rate environment or a declining interest rate environment.

The data suggests that in higher inflation periods, small cap stocks have been particularly valuable.

The economy is a very complex organism with so many different variables that will be affected if indeed inflation continues to grow, yet one foundational reason that stocks are a good defense against inflation is that companies pass on the higher cost of materials and goods to consumers. As consumers, this does mean we pay higher prices for things; and as investors, it means that we grow our portfolios, earning a premium above the inflation rate.

Our research team is monitoring the current trajectory of inflation.  Your portfolio at Merriman is already prepared for the potential of continued rising inflation. We “tilt” our portfolios towards small cap stocks. Other ways your portfolio is protected against inflation include using REIT’s and inflation protected bonds (where appropriate), keeping our bonds “short” and “Intermediate” in duration – which also helps in keeping, what we feel, is the right level of defense against stock market drops.  We use cash flow modeling to explore what it may look like if inflation was to remain high for each of our clients.

You have worked with your advisor here to determine right mix of stocks for your situation.  We believe keeping the right mix of “offense” and “defense” has been and continues to be the best way to balance the constant and changing risks posed to your investment portfolio. If you aren’t sure if you have the right balance for your situation or wish to understand how higher inflation can affect you specifically, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us for assistance.

 

 

All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax or legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Merriman and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Merriman unless a client service agreement is in place.