Bear markets can get ugly. Unfortunately they will, just as they have in the past, continue to plague the markets. You can prepare for their arrival and understand how your investment plan dictates navigating through them. The hard cold facts of bear market history provide direction.
For those unfamiliar with the term, a bear market is not a simple market correction, which is more benign and happens with greater frequency. It’s a peak to trough loss of more than 20% in the broad equity markets. In total there have been 13 bear markets since the end of the Second World War. That is one every five years or so.
Here is the promising part: In May of 1946 the S&P 500 was at 19.3, and at the end of March, 2013 it was at 1570. In total, over 81 times higher than where it started 67 years ago. And, this number excludes dividends, which historically make up around 40% of the total return.
So the question is not of avoidance, but one of preparation and acceptance. Accept that in the next 30 years we can expect to experience several bear markets. Embrace the fact that they will be temporary setbacks to a long-term trend of rising prices. Finally, prepare a plan that fits your unique set of circumstances.
For investors in the accumulation phase, take advantage of bear markets. Fight the inclination to sell investments in fear and do what you would do at any other sale – buy more stocks at their newly discounted prices.
For those in retirement, formulate a flexible income plan. Include a cash cushion in this plan that allows your portfolio to stay dormant during the tough times and to thrive as the stock markets resume their long-term ascent. Most importantly, do not let a temporary setback ruin your long term plan. And remember that over time, equities are the best hedge for inflation, which is so important for the long-term viability of your portfolio. Life expectancies are increasing and fixed-income investments (aka bonds) are just that, fixed.
There is always going to be some perma-bear forecasting the death of equities and a market optimist predicting a new era of exponential returns. Neither of them knows the specifics of your retirement plan and they rarely understand that “this time” is never different. Do not get enamored of prognostications based upon remote possibilities. Rather, work with your advisor to build a plan around the historical probabilities of the markets and your unique retirement needs.
