September 2023 Market Update

Over the past month, investors have remained cautious. The optimism of early summer that propelled a broad-based rally in global stock markets has waned as investors returned to being nervous about higher interest rates driving an economic slowdown. Investors flocked back to U.S. large growth stocks seeming to perceive them as a haven from economic pressures.

Historically, large stocks have typically fallen less in bear markets than small stocks so there is some rationale for that approach if one thought that the timing of recessions was predictable. However, there are many factors that can result in this not being true for an individual stock. Let’s take the case of Apple (AAPL). The first iPhone was released in June of 2007. From January to December of 2007, Apple stock rallied ending the year up a whopping 136%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 was up a little over 5%. When the Great Financial Crisis hit, Apple fell 56% in 2008. The S&P 500 was down 36%. Being a great company with a great product wasn’t a silver bullet in protecting investors from losses during economic stress. The pain was even greater for those investors who bought Apple in the last quarter of 2008 when the price was already quite high.

We believe that a combination of staying diversified as well as avoiding stocks that have very high prices relative to their current earnings and book value is a better approach than trying to predict when a recession is coming, or which stocks will do well when one ultimately does come.

Disclosure: All opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes and constitute the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of the report. These opinions are subject to change without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Merriman cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.  Merriman does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital and past performance does not guarantee future returns; please seek advice from a licensed professional.