In managing investments, making decisions based on feelings of excessive optimism or excessive pessimism rarely ends well. Maintaining a balanced perspective in an ever-changing and often chaotic world is a difficult yet critically important part of achieving long-term investing success.
To be sure, the news lately has been enough to scare many people into believing that things are shaping up for another 2008 debacle. Seemingly at every turn we hear of the debt crisis in the Eurozone, the possibility that the United States might not meet its deadline to raise the debt ceiling and the ramifications that may have, China potentially slowing down, and the U.S. housing and unemployment figures remaining at disappointing levels. And this is just to name a few!
While the United States and the rest of the world are facing many significant obstacles, and while nobody knows for sure how future events will unfold, I offer the following examples of recent positive, noteworthy items that went largely ignored:
- Japanese auto manufacturers and parts suppliers resumed shipments after being forced to essentially shut down because of last winter’s earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear incident.
- Foreign and domestic auto manufacturers established new plants and/or increased hiring in the United States, and sales increased meaningfully. (more…)
There was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal from March 8, 2011 called “Why Small-Cap Funds are Lagging.” It cites a study by Credit Suisse showing that “small-cap funds have increasingly been investing in companies larger than their category name would indicate—and the average fund is underperforming its benchmark.”
The article goes on to say “The average market capitalization of a company in a small-cap fund was about $3.1 billion at the end of 2010, compared to the average market cap of the benchmark Russell 2000 index of about $1.3 billion. The $1.8 billion gap between the two is the largest since September 2008.” (more…)
It was not that long ago when the equity markets were down over 50%, buy-and-hold investing had been declared dead, and many investors had little faith that the markets would recover during their lifetime. Two years later the equity markets have risen significantly. Many investors may not understand why as the recovery has occurred during a period of soaring deficits, major bank failures, increased tensions in the Middle East, rising prices for oil and gold, and uncertainty over the financial stability of the European Union.
This article by David Callaway offers lessons that many investors have learned during this most recent downturn: The market has always recovered without the ability to see nor predict the turning point until after the fact. Buy-and-hold investment strategies are not dead, and investors who stayed the course through thick and thin did quite well. Diversification works, and diversified portfolios have helped to capture the best of market movements. Quite possibly the most important lesson we can all learn is that as the daily noise of the news grows louder and louder, often times the best thing we can do is tune it out.
With the high volatility in the stock market over the past year, emotions have been running at an all-time high for many investors. Staying on track has become harder than ever.
Although the overall stock market has recovered some of its lost ground this spring, many people are still very spooked by stocks. Unfortunately, that trepidation can lead to decisions that investors may later regret.
Long-term investors have two basic jobs: managing their investments and managing their emotions. You can hire somebody to manage your money — and we think you should. But only you can manage your emotions.
This is important because if emotions get out of control, they can undercut even the best money-management practices. (more…)